World Championships Relay Analysis: Mixed Medley Rematch Missing Standouts from Paris Classic
In one of the top races of the Paris Olympics, the United States defeated China for gold in the mixed 400 medley relay. The Chinese team had the slight lead at the halfway point thanks to the breaststroke dominance of Qin Haiyang, but the Americans would take the lead with Gretchen Walsh scorching what was then the fastest butterfly relay split in history. Torri Huske came home with the fastest 100 freestyle performance of her career to beat Chinese anchor Yang Junxuan by 12-hundredths, with both teams eclipsing the previous world record.
At the upcoming World Championships in Singapore, the U.S. and China will again be favored for the top-two spots in this event, but the race looks substantially different with key members of both squads absent. For the Americans, Ryan Murphy has been entrenched as the top men’s backstroker for a decade while Nic Fink has been a reliable breaststroker. Staying close enough to Qin in the Olympic final put the U.S. women in position to pounce.
As for China, the front half of Xu Jiayu and Qin remains intact, but Yang is not competing this year while Zhang Yufei, the world champion in the 100 fly in 2023, has only the third-best time amongst Chinese women in her main event this year. The team which overcomes these absences most effectively will emerge with gold.
When assembling a mixed medley relay lineup, the two male swimmers and two female swimmers are allowed to swim any combination of strokes, but conventional wisdom has shifted toward always utilizing a male breaststroker. Because that is the slowest stroke, the difference between women’s and men’s times is greatest in that leg. The Americans learned that lesson at the Tokyo Olympics, when a team favored for gold ended with a disastrous fifth-place finish.
Fortunately for the U.S., men’s breaststroke is not the weakness it looked like entering U.S. Nationals. Teenager Campbell McKean swam the world’s second-fastest time for 2025 in the 100 breast at 58.96, and Josh Matheny was not far back at 59.18. Whoever finishes higher in the 100-meter race at Worlds will surely take on breaststroke duties for this relay.
However, the Americans do have a problem in men’s backstroke. Tommy Janton is currently the country’s fastest over 100 meters this year at 53.00, well behind the times Murphy posted during his run atop the event. Perhaps Janton or someone else on the team (Shaine Casas potentially?) has more in the tank, but the American coaching staff might have to consider shifting the strategy and using a female backstroker.
Women’s 100 butterfly world-record holder Gretchen Walsh — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Going from a male to Regan Smith on backstroker would mean the U.S. team loses the advantage of Walsh on fly or Huske on free. Both swimmers enter the World Championships ranked No. 1 in the world in their respective 100-meter events.
Using females on backstroke and butterfly is an unusual strategy but a possible one for the Americans given the 46.99 posted by Jack Alexy in the men’s 100 free this year. In that scenario, Alexy would surely enter the water in last place and be tasked with running down his female competitors down the stretch.
The Americans have numerous different options for relay orders, with the three most likely options listed below. Only 2025 season-best times are considered.
- United States Option A: Regan Smith 57.46 + Campbell McKean 58.96 + Gretchen Walsh 54.60 + Jack Alexy 46.99 = 3:38.01
- United States Option B: Tommy Janton 53.00 + Campbell McKean 58.96 + Gretchen Walsh 54.60 + Torri Huske 52.43 = 3:38.99
- United States Option C: Regan Smith 57.46 + Campbell McKean 58.96 + Shaine Casas 50.51 + Torri Huske 52.43 = 3:39.36
An additional complication arises with the schedule: if Smith swims this relay, she would do so in the same session as she raced semifinals of the 50 back and 200 fly. A further option would be using Katharine Berkoff on backstroke instead of Smith. Berkoff would have a double with the 50 back but no draining 200-meter semifinal in the session. The relay lineups utilizing Berkoff instead of Smith are below.
- United States Option D: Katharine Berkoff 58.13 + Campbell McKean 58.96 + Gretchen Walsh 54.60 + Jack Alexy 46.99 = 3:38.68
- United States Option C: Katharine Berkoff 58.13 + Campbell McKean 58.96 + Shaine Casas 50.51 + Torri Huske 52.43 = 3:40.03
The U.S. coaching staff has a lot of variables to sort through while picking the perfect contingent here, but when only looking at times posted this year, all five of the above composite relays are faster than any other country. We’ll see if that holds up in Singapore, but for the moment, China looks hamstrung by its female options.
Chinese breaststroke star Qin Haiyang — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Wu Qingfeng is a solid freestyle fill-in for Yang while Cheng Yujie anchored this team to a world title in 2023, but the current best time by a women’s 100 butterflyer is Yu Yiting at 57.30. That’s a far cry from the 56.21 Zhang posted for Olympic bronze last year. China might also choose to go with men’s 00 free Olympic champion Pan Zhanle on the anchor leg, but that would hurt on the opening backstroke leg, where Wen Letian has a 2025 best time of 59.06. Here are China’s current options:
- China Option A: Xu Jiayu 52.49 + Qin Haiyang 58.61 + Yu Yiting 57.30 + Wu Qingfeng 53.27 = 3:41.67
- China Option B: Wen Letian 59.06 + Qin Haiyang 58.61 + Yu Yiting 57.30 + Pan Zhanle 47.77 = 3:42.74
Those times are well behind the United States, but China could still win this relay very easily. Use the 2023 best times for Qin and Zhang, and the composite times for each lineup drop by more than two seconds. Incorporate Pan’s world record of 46.40, and suddenly China’s second option is down to 3:39.27. So even with the 2025 times showing one outcome, this still remains a situation of co-favored relays.
As for other contenders, Australia is a podium regular in this event, but the team’s current top men’s breaststroke option is Nash Wilkes at 1:00.19, with 200-meter standout Zac Stubblety-Cook also an option. Italy could also work its way into the mix with Olympic champions Thomas Ceccon and Nicolo Martinenghi handling the first two legs and Sara Curtis as an emerging option on freestyle.
- Australia Option A: Kaylee McKeown 57.65 + Nash Wilkes 1:00.19 + Alex Perkins 56.42 + Kyle Chalmers 47.27 = 3:41.53
- Australia Option B: Kaylee McKeown 57.65 + Nash Wilkes 1:00.19 + Matt Temple 51.00 + Mollie O’Callaghan 52.87 = 3:41.71
- Italy: Thomas Ceccon 52.84 + Ludovico Viberti 59.04 + Costanza Cocconcelli 58.06 + Sara Curtis 53.01 = 3:42.95
- Canada: Kylie Masse 58.18 + Oliver Dawson 1:00.73 + Ilya Kharun 50.37 + Penny Oleksiak 53.89 = 3:43.17
- Great Britain: Oliver Morgan 52.12 + Angharad Evans 1:05.37 + Edward Milred 51.75 + Freya Anderson 54.09 = 3:43.33
- Japan: Riku Matsuyama 53.99 + Yamato Fukazawa 59.24 + Mizuki Hirai 57.04 + Nagisa Ikemoto 54.52 = 3:44.79
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