What if the Stroke 50s Were in Paris? France Would Have Challenged for Another Gold
Last year, the International Olympic Committee approved the addition of the 50-meter stroke events to the Olympic program for the 2028 Games in Los Angeles. For the first time, there will be 43 sets of medals awarded in the pool, and sprint-centric swimmers will have additional chances to shine on the Olympic level.
These races were previously added to the World Championships slate in 2001. Medalists in 50-meters events include some who also shined in 100-meter races while others include sprint specialists who have been virtually absent from Olympic competition in the past.
But what if the 50s had been added prior to the Paris Games? Who would have taken gold and filled out the medal stand? We will consider the potential podium finishers in the events based on results from other competitions throughout 2024 plus World Championships racing in 2023 and 2025. Read our analysis of the men’s events here.
Men’s 50 Backstroke
Italy’s Thomas Ceccon was the clear winner of the 100 back in Paris, winning gold by more than three tenths, but he has never been a standout in the 50-meter race. China’s Xu Jiayu and American Ryan Murphy, who joined Ceccon on the podium, have had varying degrees of success in the one-lap race. Of course, Russia’s Kliment Kolesnikov would have been the obvious favorite for gold in 2024 before his 2025 world title, but Russian swimmers had yet to return to international competition from their three-year exile.
The candidates that could have challenged for the podium are numerous. American Hunter Armstrong had won gold or silver in the event at three consecutive World Championships prior to Paris, but his performance in Paris was mixed, with strong freestyle relay performances but struggles in the 100 back. Greece’s Apostolos Christou and South Africa’s Pieter Coetze both impressed in the 100 back, finishing fourth and fifth, respectively, and Christou showed off his pure speed with a gutty race on the way to silver in the 200 back.
We must also consider Australia’s Isaac Cooper, who does not excel in the 100 back but won the 50 back world title earlier that year in 24.13, the fastest time in the world for the year outside of Kolesnikov.
Projected podium:
Gold: Isaac Cooper
Silver: Xu Jiayu
Bronze: Apostolos Christou
Men’s 50 Breaststroke
Adam Peaty — Photo courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
The 100 breaststroke field in Paris featured six men who had previously captured World Championship medals in the 50-meter race, including every world titlist in the past decade. Adam Peaty, the only man ever under 26 in the 50 breast, missed out on his third consecutive Olympic gold in the 100 by two hundredths. The man who edged him out, Italian Nicolo Martinenghi, had twice captured Worlds silver in the event. Before tying Peaty for silver, American Nic Fink had been a 50 breast medalist at three consecutive global meets, including a surprise title in 2022.
Qin Haiyang entered the Olympics among the favorites in all three breaststroke events after sweeping the 50, 100 and 200 at the 2023 World Championships, but he struggled mightily at the Games. Qin faded to seventh in the 100 while missing the final of the 200 entirely. His Chinese countryman Sun Jiajun had been the Worlds bronze medalist in 2023, but he missed out on the 100-meter semifinals entirely in Paris. Finally, Australia’s Sam Williamson competed in Paris just months after capturing a 50 breast world title in Doha, defeating Martinenghi, Fink and Peaty in the process, but he struggled in the 100 at the Olympics.
Projected podium:
Gold: Adam Peaty
Silver: Nicolo Martinenghi
Bronze: Nic Fink
Men’s 50 Butterfly
The home country captured six individual swimming medals in Paris, four of which came courtesy of Leon Marchand, but the total might have increased if the men’s 50 fly was part of the program. That’s because Maxime Grousset is one of the top sprint butterflyers in the world, with a World Championships bronze in the event in 2023 followed by a world title in 2025. But he struggled down the stretch in the 100-meter final at the Games, and there are at least four others who could have seized the title.
Switzerland’s Noè Ponti narrowly missed a second consecutive Olympic bronze in the 100 fly, and he would post an incredible short course season immediately after the Games, which included world titles and world records in the 50 fly and 100 fly. Canada’s Josh Liendo is the only one of the 100-meter medalists who is a sprint specialist, so a second podium finish would have been within reach. Additionally, Ceccon had won a surprise world title in the 50 fly a year earlier while Portugal’s Diogo Ribeiro won the event in Doha in February 2024.
Caeleb Dressel likely would have been the pre-meet gold-medal favorite after his standout performance at U.S. Olympic Trials. Dressel fell off in Paris, missing the 50 free podium before getting shut out of the 100 fly final, but his natural abilities in sprints and butterfly means this would have been a legitimate podium shot. Additionally, Australia’s Cam McEvoy may have thrown his name into the mix before going for 50 free gold.
Projected podium:
Gold: Josh Liendo
Silver: Noè Ponti
Bronze: Maxime Grousset